Earth's Energy Imbalance More Than Doubled in Recent Decades. New publication by MISU
Global warming stems from the difference between incoming solar and outgoing reflected and infrared radiation, causing energy buildup and climate impacts like rising temperatures and sea levels. In 2023, this imbalance reached a new record high, twice that of the IPCC best estimate. Improved understanding and monitoring are urgently needed.
Global warming is caused by the imbalance between the incoming radiation from the Sun and the reflected and outgoing infrared radiation from the Earth. The imbalance leads to energy accumulation in the atmosphere, oceans and land, and melting of the cryosphere, resulting in increasing temperatures, rising sea levels, and more extreme weather around the globe according the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
A new study on this topic written by a large international author team lead by Thorsten Mauritsen with participation by Linde Megner and Frida Bender from the Department of Meteorology at Stockholm University was recently published in AGU Advances.
– We need to closely keep track of the imbalance because it tells us how far we are from stabilising our climate, says Thorsten Mauritsen.
Observations from space of the energy imbalance shows that it is rising much faster than expected, and in 2023 it reached values two times higher than the best estimate from IPCC.
To be honest, this rapid rise has taken us scientists by surprise, and we are not sure what is going on
– To be honest, this rapid rise has taken us scientists by surprise, and we are not sure what is going on. If this trend continues for just a few more years, and can be confirmed by independent data, then I think we will be beyond the realm of our current understanding, says Thorsten Mauritsen.
Nevertheless, our capacity to monitor the imbalance in the future is threatened. A large NASA run system called CERES consisting of six instruments on different satellites is soon going to be decommissioned, and only one replacement instrument, Libera, is being built and planned to launch in 2027.
– This means that at some point in the early 2030s we may have a single point of failure in space, and should Libera actually fail at that point then we are basically running our climate blindfolded, says Thorsten Mauritsen.
Read more on the subject:
MISU satellite project receives funding from the Swedish National Space Agency
Authors from MISU, together with an international team (see article link above):
Last updated: June 10, 2025
Source: MISU